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28 Gibraltar International www.gibraltarinternational.comInvesting and gambling are not the same. Investors have access to relevant information, such as a company%u2019s competitive advantages, cash flow and earnings. Ironically though, this difference can make people feel more confident in betting on the markets. After all, if you can make informed decisions about the market, then a gamble on it becomes more akin to investing, right? Not quite. Though we can make informed investing decisions, the truth is that we have cognitive biases. We place too much weight on events that easily come to mind, on information that confirms our pre-existing beliefs, and on what others are doing. When it comes to investing, we have things like portfolio diversification and a long-term time horizon that can help mitigate the effects of our mistakes. With a %u201cyes-no%u201d gamble on what the market will do on a given day, each mistake is total and cannot be recouped.Our allocation to the stock market moves to overweightAs of 30th September, the S&P 500 was up 14% year-to-date. Whilst historical performance has limited value as a forecasting tool, seasoned investors are well aware that the market%u2019s calendar tendencies can shape trading behaviour in the absence of superseding events or policies. The S&P 500 has delivered annual capital appreciation averaging 10.6% for all years from 1980 through 2024. Almost half of that gain is derived in the final three months of the year (4.8% in Q4 vs 5.7% in the first three quarters). In 18 of those 45 years, the S&P 500 has been up in double-digit percentages as of the close of September. Average capital appreciation for those 18 years is extremely strong at 18.3%.AI tradeIn those years, the market is moving like a freight train, and any remaining bears know they need to capitulate or get steamrolled. Of course, much can happen between now and year-end. But with the AI trade back in vogue, and with investors buying into sectors that have been ignored in recent years, it is not unreasonable to assume additional capital gains as the year winds down. Meanwhile, earnings performance year to date has been good, which has kept valuations from soaring to excessive levels. Stocks are not cheap, but do not appear overvalued. And lower interest rates are expected to stimulate the economy. That has encouraged investors to continue liking a stock rally that is otherwise showing signs of fatigue. Equally, investors with %u201cmarket memory%u201d know that the stock market tends to rise in periods when central banks are cutting rates. Positive GDP growth is also contributing to a case of FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) for many investors.ChainlinkChainlink was created in 2017 by Sergey Nazarov and Steve Ellis. It raised $32 million during its launch and went live on the Ethereum blockchain in 2019. Since then, it has become one of the most important pieces of technology in the cryptocurrency world. Its native token, LINK, is used to keep the network running smoothly and to reward people who provide services on it. At its heart, Chainlink is a connector. Blockchains (like Ethereum or Bitcoin) are very secure but closed systems - they can%u2019t pull in outside information on their own. For example, a smart contract can%u2019t check the weather, a stock price, or a sports score directly. Chainlink solves this problem by acting as a %u201cdecentralised oracle network%u201d. Think of it as a trusted middleman that delivers real-world data into blockchains so smart contracts can function properly. Chainlink is already used widely in %u201cDecentralised Finance%u201d (DeFi). Apps like Aave and Synthetix use Chainlink to obtain accurate price data for cryptocurrencies. Every time the apps request data, Chainlink %u201cnode operators%u201d deliver it. Node operators are paid in LINK tokens for their work. This means the more people use the apps, the more data requests go through Chainlink, and the more LINK flows through the system. To run a node, operators also stake LINK as collateral to prove they%u2019ll act honestly. This locks up LINK, taking it out of circulation and increasing the value of remaining tokens. Beyond DeFi, Chainlink helps with insurance (for example, paying out automatically if there%u2019s bad weather), online games (providing random numbers to ensure fairness), and even supply chain tracking. Its new system, called CCIP (Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol), lets different blockchains talk to each other - something the crypto world has struggled with for years.The Bull Case for ChainlinkAs more industries use blockchains, they will all need reliable data feeds. Chainlink is the leader in this space. The more projects that use Chainlink, the harder it is for competitors to catch up. It%u2019s like how everyone uses Google for search - it becomes the default choice. Chainlink is positioning itself as the messaging standard between blockchains. Chainlink has worked with companies like Google Cloud and SWIFT (the global banking network). This shows it%u2019s not just for crypto insiders - big institutions see its value too. Chainlink isn%u2019t just another cryptocurrency. It%u2019s the plumbing of the blockchain world - the tech that allows smart contracts to actually interact with real life. LINK is the cryptocurrency token used inside the Chainlink network and is the asset you can trade on exchanges. To use Chainlink%u2019s services (like price feeds or weather data), developers and companies must pay in LINK tokens. More usage = more demand for LINK to pay for those services.For those investors without access to crypto trading platforms, we recommend obtaining exposure via the 21Shares Chainlink ETP, which holds physical LINK tokens and can be purchased via a regular stockbroking account. Note this investment is suitable only for high risk investors who have passed an Appropriateness Assessment.The Stock MarketAutumn Market CommentaryBy Mark Maloney, Managing Director, Gibraltar Asset Managementwww.gam.gi