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26 Gibraltar International www.gibraltarinternational.comUS brokerages are scrambling to revise their forecast models with tariff distress threatening to sap business confidence and slow down global growth. %u201cDisruptive US policies have been recognised as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year,%u201d JPMorgan said, adding that the country%u2019s trade policy has turned less business friendly than anticipated. The effect is likely to be magnified through tariff retaliation, a slide in US business sentiment and supply-chain disruptions. Barclays warned the American economy could enter into contraction territory, while other analysts forecast economic growth of just 0.1% to 1%. UBS has downgraded its recommendation on US stocks to %u201cneutral%u201d from %u201cattractive%u201d, whilst Capital Economics has cut its index target for the S&P 500 to 5,500 - the lowest amongst major investment houses.Market OutlookWell, we%u2019ve finally witnessed %u201cLiberation Day%u201d. Is it time to buy the news, or is the tariff bite worse than the tariff bark? Will the S&P 500 break to new corrective lows, possibly heading to 5,000 before we see 6,000 again? We continue to lean toward a contrarian bullish outcome as sentiment is abysmal and it seems like the majority of the investment world is looking for and preparing for the worst. In addition, a sizeable number of stocks have already fallen between 20% and 50% so far in 2025, meaning that there has been quite a shakeout already.No matter what your opinions are on President Donald Trump Jr, he does seem to get the job done. Whether that is reining in North Korea%u2019s wayward dictator, forcing NATO countries to increase their defence spending or getting a better deal for US Love him or hate him, Trump gets resultsContinued p28The Stock MarketBy Mark Maloney, Managing Director, Gibraltar Asset Management