Page 27 - GIF

“Conservative estimate” sees £2.4bn GDP by 2020
News
Gibraltar”. [An undersea electricity supply cable to Morocco has been mooted.]
The feasibility of the first energy project will be decided early this year with a view to implementation in 2017 by which time the second, 2-stage project will have been evaluated and it is envisaged to complete by 2020.
Deposits in Gibraltar Savings Bank are forecast to rise by £500m to reach £1.6bn+ in four years, but profitability – from a portfolio of investments locally and abroad - will fall slightly from 9% to 8.75% (or £14m) retained in GSB reserves, which are anticipated to jump by 268% from the £19m expected in March to reach £70m in 2019-20.
Growth in PAYE received from the insurance sector in particular and the corporate tax increases from both the insur- ance and gaming sectors in 2014-15 “were greater than we had anticipated”, Fabian Picardo, Gibraltar’s Chief Minister said, and that gave a large boost to GDP. “The insurance sector is one of the great success stories of our 4 years – it is something we are very proud of; the growth has been exponential”, he insisted.
A slower rate of growth still means an economy one third greater and possibly more aided by renewable energy projects
Gibraltar’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the period 2011-15 exceeded expectations by growing
from £1.1bn to reach £1.84bn, rather than the £1.65bn originally forecast.
A ‘National Economic Plan’ for the next four years to 2020 repeats in cash terms, rather than percentage terms, about the same GDP growth as achieved in the previous 4 years and is targeted to be £600m higher and to reach £2.4bn, a one third rise in the economy in 4 years.
If some of the anticipated inward investment materialises, “the figures will turn out to be, if anything, conservative”, possibly by at least another £100m, declared Joe
Bossano, minister for economic development and a former chief minister for eight years until 1988.
In the current 2015-16 financial year, the revenue estimate is £560m, £40m short of target, and for the next four years it will continue to grow at a lower rate to reach £710m by March 2020, £150m - or 27% - more than this year.
“We have always been committed in every election to above-average economic growth regardless of what is happening in the global economy”, he stated, and he promised there would be no change to the 10% company tax or personal tax rates “in general”, but incentives for inward investment both for businesses and individuals are being considered.
An envisaged 8-year inward investment programme follows two years’ of discussions, and focuses on renewable energy projects that “would create new export industries for
www.gibraltarinternational.com
Gibraltar International 27